Betting Strategies

Basic bet types explained

Understanding basic bet types is vital for any punter to maximise their opportunity of making a profit. This article explains three basic bet types offered by Pinnacle; 1X—2€™, Handicap and Totals. Continue reading to learn more about the different basic…

How to choose a staking method based on your betting profile

To be profitable in the betting markets, a bettor needs two things: an edge over the bookmaker and a well-disciplined staking method. In this article, Joseph Buchdahl calculates the profitability and chances of bankruptcy for five different staking methods. Read on to…

How to bet on newly promoted teams

It might be obvious to say that soccer teams struggle with the jump in quality after winning promotion. However, being able to quantify those struggles could be beneficial to bettors. Analysing newly promoted teams’ results against “better quality” teams in…

All you need to know to beat the bookies

The principle of value betting is not to bet when you think you will win, but when the probability of you winning is greater than that implied by the bookmaker’s odds. To be a profitable bettor means that your judgement…

How to test the credibility of a tipster’s record

For those of us who use tipsters to find positive expectation there are two important questions. Is the tipster lucky or skilled?  And is the track record genuine? We have previously investigated how to evaluate a tipster’s ability and how to…

Why information is more valuable than soccer betting tips

Knowing about something before anyone else is the key to successful betting. Instead of wasting time with soccer betting tips, smart bettors will collate as much information as possible, analyse the impact it could have on the market and then…

What is survivorship bias?

With success stories of professional bettors living the good life all over the internet, how easy is it to get consistent profits in the sports markets? Joseph Buchdahl, who has evaluated over 100 tipsters in his career as a betting…

The search for truth: Signal vs. noise

Opinion is free, but information is very expensive, which is a harsh reality for bettors who derive an edge from reacting to news before the odds do. In an ever-more digitally connected world the volume of free opinion is rising…

The law of small numbers in sports betting

The law of small numbers is a cognitive bias where people show a tendency to believe that a relatively small number of observations will closely reflect the general population. Read on to test your logical powers with the hospital quiz…

The ultimate guide to evaluating betting tipsters

Betting tipsters often promise high strike rates that will win you a fortune. Although the promise of big profits is alluring, how can you tell the difference between a profitable tipster and a salesman. Read on to find out the…

Arbitrage betting explained

Arbitrage betting is when a bettor uses a system that exploits differentials in odds for a specific market at two or more bookmakers. It guarantees the bettor a profit, as the combined odds produce a negative margin -€“ a margin…

Staking: One method to improve your betting

There is a strong case to suggest that the amount you bet is actually more important than what you bet on. We reviewed five popular staking methods. Continue reading to discover which is best. Professional blackjack player and author Ed…

How Pinnacle’s API can improve your betting

Pinnacle is renowned for offering great value and unbeatable odds. Additionally, there is another equally important, but lesser known free service we provide that offers bettors a potentially huge advantage – a betting API. Read on to find out the…

Betting exchanges explained

Betting exchanges offer bettors an alternative to the traditional bookmaker with the promise of better value, but how do they work and what are the hidden costs you should be aware of before deciding that they are the best deal…

The role of utility in profitable betting

To win in sports betting you need a betting strategy with a positive expected value, i.e. an estimation of your average winnings per bet. But how much capital should you risk per bet to achieve maximum profits? For this, you…

How to beat the bookies in the Over/Under market

With a large number of soccer bettors looking for more profitable markets than 1X2, where a lack of scoring or a late equaliser can turn even the best betting judgments into losing bets, here’s a simple guide on how to…

Why do bookmakers close or limit betting accounts

With more and more cases of winning bettors complaining about having their accounts closed or severely restricted by leading bookmakers, what are the reasons behind this off-the-record practice? Read on to find out what can get your betting account closed…

A guide to hedging outright markets in sports betting

From the world of finances to casino games, hedging is a key strategy applied across the board by professional bettors as a means of reducing risk and securing winnings. Here’s how to use hedging in the outright sports betting markets…

How to calculate margins on soccer betting odds

The margin a bookmaker applies on the betting odds is the number one information a bettor should know in order to increase long-term profits, with lower margins favoring the bettor and larger margins eating into betting profits. Here’s a simple…

Understanding the significance of market movement

Understanding the significance of market movement is a vital betting strategy for bettors who hope to predict the winner of a sporting event. By taking notice of the odds movement at Pinnacle, bettors are on the right track to becoming…

The need for a Bayesian approach in betting

Following the Copa America this year, Dominic Cortis became the witness to two stunning statistical events. During this tournament, Mexico broke two records. Read on to find out how these records were conflicting in nature and what that means for…

How to use Kelly Criterion for betting

Bettors should always look for a mathematical edge rather than rely on their impulses. Learning how to use the Kelly Criterion, for example, is a great way for bettors to determine how much they should stake. Read on to find…

Soccer handicap betting explained

Find out the meaning of soccer handicap betting, how it works and the different types of soccer handicap betting markets available at Pinnacle, where handicap betting is our speciality. In soccer as is an all competitive sports there is normally…

Why free bets are not free

When looking to join a betting site, one of the criteria that inexperienced bettors often use to guide their choice is the sign-up incentive. Free bets may seem like a good reason to choose a bookmaker, but what is the…

Why are betting tipsters underperforming

From finances to sports, betting is a mixture of skill and luck. The key to long-term success is not to pick winners, but to find value and make consistent profits. Betting tipsters often promise high strike rates, but can they…

The ultimate guide on backing outsiders

The tendency to overvalue “longshots” and undervalue favourites is widely known in the world of sports betting and finances as the favourite-longshot bias. Learn what it is, how bookmakers take advantage of it and what you can do to survive…

Understanding bet types in tennis

With the 2016 Wimbledon around the corner, it is key for tennis bettors to know how to apply handicap betting in matches where a major favourite plays against an underdog. Read on to find out which bet types offer the…

Leicester’s success story: Skill or luck?

Considered 5,000/1 outsiders by bookmakers at the start of the 2015/16 season, the soccer world is still flabbergasted by Leicester’s City Premier League title. Could statistical analysis have predicted this rare event? Betting analyst, Joseph Buchdahl, takes a look at…

Applying Elo ratings to soccer betting

You might have heard of Elo ratings but what is it exactly and how can they be applied to betting to increase your winnings? A must read for anybody planning to bet on the second leg matches of the UEFA…

Using the Monte Carlo method to analyse your betting history

Following the discussion of Randomness in sporting outcomes, Joseph Buchdahl is taking the analysis of the factor of luck to the next level. Find out how randomness can influence your betting performance and how you can measure it by using…

Past performance is not an indicator of future results

From betting tipsters to financial advisors, past data is widely used to predict future events. In this article, Dominic Cortis discusses the pitfalls and advantages of this method and explains why prediction models failed to predict Leicester’s chances of winning…

Randomness in sports betting

Betting on sport is, by nature, a very uncertain business, but can bettors keep a tight grip on the randomness of it all? Joseph Buchdahl looks at the best way to tackle the inevitable randomness in sports betting. In December…

The pitfalls of Martingale money management strategy

Some bettors are big believers in money management strategies but are they really as reliable as people make out? Joseph Buchdahl investigated the Martingale betting system to see whether the returns are really worth the risks. There are some punters…

What is the Labouchere betting system

To be profitable in sports betting, staking strategy is as important as finding value odds. With many progressive betting systems, such as the Labouchere betting system, promising almost infinite wealth, are they a good idea to follow? Here’s the academic…

Using Pythagorean expectation for soccer betting

Predominantly used for betting on US sports such as baseball and basketball, can Pythagorean expectation be used for betting on soccer? Analytics expert, Mark Taylor explains why this could be a potentially profitable strategy when betting on long-term markets. One…

Using ‘R’ for betting analysis

Gaining an edge in betting often boils down to intelligent data analysis, but faced with daunting amounts of data it can be hard to know where to start. If this sounds familiar, R – an increasingly popular statistical programming language…

What do betting odds represent

Odds are only a representation of something more important – probability. Getting a handle on how to calculate probability and covert it into decimal odds is the first step in developing your own assessments of betting value. There is a…

Using Chi-Square to make more informed betting decisions

In order to have a successful betting model, all bettors should collect as much data as possible. But just how well does data fit into certain expected scenarios? Dominic Cortis explains how important ‘the goodness of fit’ is in analysing…

How to spot errors and inaccuracies in prediction models

Previous articles have introduced different types of prediction models as well as methods to measure dispersion. Whatever the model, the prediction is not prophecy, it assigns a likelihood to an event, which can be influenced by error, something bettors should…

How do I calculate betting margins

If you’re new to betting, you should learn how to calculate betting margins. This article explains what betting margins are, highlights why Pinnacle Sports offer the best value and teaches you how to calculate betting margins. In simple terms, bookmakers…

How does luck influence short term betting

As a bettor do you understand how luck influences your short-term betting? Is a run of five winning bets skill or luck? This article explains how assigning probabilities to your bets is a good habit to develop, as a run…

How to build a betting model

How do you build a sports betting model? What steps are involved? What do you need to consider? Follow these steps to build your own quantitative model, and take your betting to the next level. What is a betting model?…

Using Standard Deviation to compare scoring patterns

This article explains to soccer bettors how to use standard deviation for handicap betting. By understanding this, you can gauge the probability of a team covering the spread more accurately, which can translate to more profit. These previous articles explained why…

An example of how to build a betting model

Following our popular article on how to build a betting model, here is a practical example of creating, applying and testing a betting model that predicts wins, losses and draws in the Premier League. Read on to find out. In…

Sports betting profitability and the affect of margins

Do you know what a ‘margin’ is and how crucial it is to your sports betting profitability? The bigger the bookmaker’s margin, the more accurate you have to be with your bets to make a long-term profit. Find out more.…

Mean, mode and median crucial concepts for betting

The most popular way to assess data for betting purposes is to use an average, but is it the most useful? The mode and median often provide a more suitable alternative, so understanding them is crucial for successful betting. The…

A powerful tool to beat the betting market

Recently, the official Pinnacle Sports Twitter account has been sharing data on the percentage of bets made on either side of selected major markets. Understand the benefits to our Twitter followers and how to use the information. Our Educational mandate…

Using a Monte Carlo model to predict sports

What models do you use to guide your bets? If you haven’t heard of Monte Carlo simulation you could be missing out. There are various ways to solve a real-life conundrum numerically; however we are usually accustomed to a traditional…

How to calculate Draw No Bet from 1X2 odds

If you ever feel constrained by traditional 1X2 options then a Draw No Bet (DNB) option could be what you are looking for. Find out how to calculate this. What is a Draw No Bet? When betting on regular time…

What home set-up is best for in-play betting

In-play betting requires a detailed setup to achieve maximum success. This article examines a typical trader set-up, and what can be done to avoid disasters in the markets. The basic home bettor set-up First and foremost, a laptop or a…

Why use 1X2 market to place bets as Double Chance

Bettors should be able to calculate Double Chance stakes and odds on the 1X2 market to understand the true value of their bets. This article explains how Pinnacle Sports bettors can use the 1X2 market to place bets as Double…

Bayesian analysis and sports betting

Bettors often seek out new tools to help refine the process of assigning accurate probabilities to the chances of uncertain events happening. This article discusses how Bayesian Analysis – the theory of an 18th Century English Presbyterian Minister named Thomas…

Alternative to laying on Exchanges

Think that you have to use an Exchange to lay a bet? Pinnacle can provide an alternative. Find out why we offer more value than an exchange and then decide for yourself what the most profitable choice is. Value when…

How to calculate commission-free odds

Don’t think Pinnacle Sports offer more value than an Exchange? Learn how to calculate commission-free odds, and you may change your mind. Calculating an exchanges hidden commission Unlike regular bookmakers, exchanges charge commission on your winnings, i.e. net profit on…

Measuring Expected Value

Expected Value is a great way to measure whether a bet is potentially profitable. In fact, one mathematician even used EV to guarantee multiple lottery jackpot wins. Despite its usefulness, however, many bettors are unfamiliar with the technique. Learn about…

The Pareto Principle of Prediction

It’s common knowledge that to acquire a skill, you have to climb a learning curve. “Curve” is a good description of the process, as the acquisition of skill – like in making accurate betting predictions – isn’t linear. Read on…

Is the Fibonacci betting system profitable

Progressive betting systems aren’t the most glamorous form of soccer betting, but some people claim they can make big profits. We investigated the Fibonacci betting system to see whether the returns were worth the risks. The essence of the Fibonacci…

Advanced betting types explained

Bookmakers like Pinnacle Sports offer numerous bet types to cater for the variety of interests of its players. These range from the simple “bet to win” single bet, all the way to live betting and “buying and selling points”. This…

How to get an edge in betting

The fundamental challenge for serious bettors is to gain an advantage over whoever is laying their bet, whether that is a bookmaker, exchange or casino. In betting parlance this is called ‘getting an edge’ and if you want to be…

How weather influences betting

When placing a bet, you may check variables such as a team’s form and their record against the opposition – but do you check the weather? This often-overlooked aspect of sports betting can influence the outcome of any sporting event.…

How do free bets work

When choosing a bookmaker, incentives are especially appealing – but how do free bets work? Unfortunately, a read through these bookmakers’ terms and conditions show that it’s not just free money. Read this article to learn how free bets work…

How to select a betting tipster using survivorship bias

Some bettors defer the betting selection process and use tipsters. Unfortunately, it’€™s easy to confuse whether a tipster’€™s track-record shows a statistically significant predictive ability, or just a good run of luck. This article explains how to judge a tipster…

Calculating Expected Value for sports betting

The Expected Value of a bet shows us how much we can expect to win (on average) per bet, and as such is the most valuable calculation a bettor can make when, comparing bookmakers odds. This article shows you how…

Basic bet types explained

Understanding basic bet types is vital for any punter to maximise their opportunity of making a profit. This article explains three basic bet types offered by Pinnacle Sports; 1X—2€™s, Handicaps and Totals. Basic Bet Types: 1X2€™s 1X2 markets are the…

Explaining how bookmakers work with a coin

There are two groups of gamblers, those who hope to win and those who plan to win. By understanding how bookmakers work, you can calculate how to become more profitable with your betting and transform your losses into wins. This…

1X2 to Handicap odds conversion

A good way to discover where the value of a bet lies is by calculating a 1×2 to handicap conversion. Most bookmakers use a ’1×2 to handicap’ conversion chart, which will give you a better insight into the particular market,…