Betting Strategies

Betting odds explained: How to calculate odds

[tip] Odds are only a representation of something more important – probability. Getting a handle on how to calculate probability and convert it into decimal odds is the first step in developing your own assessments of betting value. There is…

How handicapping into buckets can help with betting

[tip] Have you considered handicap betting into buckets? Not familiar with this concept? Adam Chernoff breaks down this unquie betting strategy to offer bettors a more methodical approach when it comes to betting on the Handicap. Read on to inform…

The hot hand just got hotter

[tip] There is a common belief in momentum, or hot handedness, in sport despite studies claiming to disprove the concept. Should bettors discard the concept of form? This article argues that it may be an error to do so. In…

The Pareto Principle applied to betting

[tip] It’s common knowledge that to acquire a skill, you have to climb a learning curve. “Curve” is a good description of the process, as the acquisition of skill – like in making accurate betting predictions – isn’t linear. Read…

What is the Fibonacci betting system?

[tip] Progressive betting systems aren’t the most glamorous form of soccer betting, but some people claim they can make big profits. We investigated the Fibonacci betting system to see whether the returns were worth the risks. The essence of the…

Using the Monte Carlo method to analyse your betting history

[tip] Following the discussion of Randomness in sporting outcomes, Joseph Buchdahl is taking the analysis of the factor of luck to the next level. Find out how randomness can influence your betting performance and how you can measure it by…

Understanding and managing your risks of ruin

[tip] The risk of ruin concept is well-known in finance and investing but how can it be applied to sports betting? Why should even profitable bettors be aware of the concept? Read on to find out. In his book Skin in…

Using bookmaker margins to spot influential line moves

[tip] Margins drive the betting world. They are the reason bookmakers exist, and why bettors pursue value in the markets. Yet, despite the undeniable importance, very few bettors know how to calculate margins and use them to evaluate market moves.…

Bankroll management: Odds, edge and variance

[tip] Betting bankroll management and awareness of variance are essential skills for bettors. What is the relationship between odds, edge and variance? What are the bankroll implications of varying odds? Read on to find out. By understanding what to expect…

Home field advantage analysed

[tip] Taking into consideration home field advantage is an essential part of betting. What factors influence home advantage? Which soccer league has the biggest home advantage? What do Pinnacle’s closing odds suggest about home field advantage? Read on to find…

Does intuition have a place in sports betting?

[tip] Many “casual” bettors choose their bets through “gut feeling” about what they think will happen during an event, an approach which does not lend itself to profitable betting. Does this mean more skilled bettors can rule out utilising their…

Revisiting the Kelly Criterion Part 2: Fractional Kelly

[tip] The Kelly Criterion is often a hot topic of debate amongst bettors. Pinnacle has published numerous articles on the subject, from simple explanations to complex analyses. How does a fractional approach to the Kelly Criterion work and is it…

Revisiting the Kelly Criterion Part 1: A risk assessment

[tip] Using a staking method (or money management strategy) is a crucial component of making a consistent profit from betting. The Kelly Criterion is often cited as the best option to use for various reasons, but how does it work…

Applying opportunity cost to sports betting

[tip] Opportunity cost is a useful concept for deciding the best way to maximize return on investment from funds. Even profitable bettors should be aware of the potential costs of misallocating resources. Read on to find out more about applying…

How often do professional bettors get paid?

[tip] Earning a living from betting can be rewarding. However, as profitable as becoming a winning bettor can be, earning a regular salary from sports betting can be challenging. How often can winning bettors expect to get paid? Read on to…

Part two: Is there a magical betting formula?

[tip] David Sumpter, a professor of Applied Mathematics, explained the process of building a betting model based on under-priced draws in part one of this article. Now, he analyses whether expected goals can be used to beat the bookmaker’s odds.…

How to calculate Expected Value

[tip] The Expected Value of a bet shows us how much we can expect to win (on average) per bet, and as such is the most valuable calculation a bettor can make when comparing bookmakers odds. How can you calculate…

What are the most common mistakes sports bettors make?

[tip] While Betting Resources aims to educate bettors about everything from the basics of betting to predictive models, some bettors still fall into the common traps that inhibit success. This article provides a basic explanation of the common mistakes bettors…

Part one: Is there a magical betting formula?

[tip] David Sumpter, a professor of Applied Mathematics, has shown how soccer can be dissected and broken down into numbers, patterns and shapes in his book Soccermatics. Having already developed a betting model, he has now written a two-part article…

How to choose a staking method based on your betting profile

[tip] To be profitable in the betting markets, a bettor needs two things: an edge over the bookmaker and a well-disciplined staking method. In this article, Joseph Buchdahl calculates the profitability and chances of bankruptcy for five different staking methods. Read on…

How to bet on newly promoted teams

[tip] It might be obvious to say that soccer teams struggle with the jump in quality after winning promotion. However, being able to quantify those struggles could be beneficial to bettors. Analysing newly promoted teams’ results against “better quality” teams…

All you need to know to beat the bookies

[tip] The principle of value betting is not to bet when you think you will win, but when the probability of you winning is greater than that implied by the bookmaker’s odds. To be a profitable bettor means that your…

How to test the credibility of a tipster’s record

[tip] For those of us who use tipsters to find positive expectation there are two important questions. Is the tipster lucky or skilled?  And is the track record genuine? We have previously investigated how to evaluate a tipster’s ability and how…

Why information is more valuable than soccer betting tips

[tip] Knowing about something before anyone else is the key to successful betting. Instead of wasting time with soccer betting tips, smart bettors will collate as much information as possible, analyse the impact it could have on the market and…

What is survivorship bias?

[tip] With success stories of professional bettors living the good life all over the internet, how easy is it to get consistent profits in the sports markets? Joseph Buchdahl, who has evaluated over 100 tipsters in his career as a…

The search for truth: Signal vs. noise

[tip] Opinion is free, but information is very expensive, which is a harsh reality for bettors who derive an edge from reacting to news before the odds do. In an ever-more digitally connected world the volume of free opinion is…

The law of small numbers in sports betting

[tip] The law of small numbers is a cognitive bias where people show a tendency to believe that a relatively small number of observations will closely reflect the general population. Read on to test your logical powers with the hospital…

The ultimate guide to evaluating betting tipsters

[tip] Betting tipsters often promise high strike rates that will win you a fortune. Although the promise of big profits is alluring, how can you tell the difference between a profitable tipster and a salesman. Read on to find out…

Arbitrage betting explained

[tip] Arbitrage betting is when a bettor uses a system that exploits differentials in odds for a specific market at two or more bookmakers. It guarantees the bettor a profit, as the combined odds produce a negative margin -€“ a…

Staking: One method to improve your betting

[tip] There is a strong case to suggest that the amount you bet is actually more important than what you bet on. We reviewed five popular staking methods. Continue reading to discover which is best. Professional blackjack player and author…

How Pinnacle’s API can improve your betting

[tip] Pinnacle is renowned for offering great value and unbeatable odds. Additionally, there is another equally important, but lesser known free service we provide that offers bettors a potentially huge advantage – a betting API. Read on to find out…

Betting exchanges explained

[tip] Betting exchanges offer bettors an alternative to the traditional bookmaker with the promise of better value, but how do they work and what are the hidden costs you should be aware of before deciding that they are the best…

The role of utility in profitable betting

[tip] To win in sports betting you need a betting strategy with a positive expected value, i.e. an estimation of your average winnings per bet. But how much capital should you risk per bet to achieve maximum profits? For this,…

How to beat the bookies in the Over/Under market

[tip] With a large number of soccer bettors looking for more profitable markets than 1X2, where a lack of scoring or a late equaliser can turn even the best betting judgments into losing bets, here’s a simple guide on how…

Why do bookmakers close or limit betting accounts

[tip] With more and more cases of winning bettors complaining about having their accounts closed or severely restricted by leading bookmakers, what are the reasons behind this off-the-record practice? Read on to find out what can get your betting account…

A guide to hedging outright markets in sports betting

[tip] From the world of finances to casino games, hedging is a key strategy applied across the board by professional bettors as a means of reducing risk and securing winnings. Here’s how to use hedging in the outright sports betting…

How to calculate margins on soccer betting odds

[tip] The margin a bookmaker applies on the betting odds is the number one information a bettor should know in order to increase long-term profits, with lower margins favoring the bettor and larger margins eating into betting profits. Here’s a…

Understanding the significance of market movement

[tip] Understanding the significance of market movement is a vital betting strategy for bettors who hope to predict the winner of a sporting event. By taking notice of the odds movement at Pinnacle, bettors are on the right track to…

The need for a Bayesian approach in betting

[tip] Following the Copa America this year, Dominic Cortis became the witness to two stunning statistical events. During this tournament, Mexico broke two records. Read on to find out how these records were conflicting in nature and what that means…

How to use Kelly Criterion for betting

[tip] Bettors should always look for a mathematical edge rather than rely on their impulses. Learning how to use the Kelly Criterion, for example, is a great way for bettors to determine how much they should stake. Read on to…

Soccer handicap betting explained

[tip] Find out the meaning of soccer handicap betting, how it works and the different types of soccer handicap betting markets. In soccer as is an all competitive sports there is normally a difference in perceived quality of the opposing teams;…

Why free bets are not free

[tip] When looking to join a betting site, one of the criteria that inexperienced bettors often use to guide their choice is the sign-up incentive. Free bets may seem like a good reason to choose a bookmaker, but what is…

Why are betting tipsters underperforming

[tip] From finances to sports, betting is a mixture of skill and luck. The key to long-term success is not to pick winners, but to find value and make consistent profits. Betting tipsters often promise high strike rates, but can…

The ultimate guide on backing outsiders

[tip] The tendency to overvalue “longshots” and undervalue favourites is widely known in the world of sports betting and finances as the favourite-longshot bias. Learn what it is, how bookmakers take advantage of it and what you can do to…

Understanding bet types in tennis

[tip] With the 2016 Wimbledon around the corner, it is key for tennis bettors to know how to apply handicap betting in matches where a major favourite plays against an underdog. Read on to find out which bet types offer…

Leicester’s success story: Skill or luck?

[tip] Considered 5,000/1 outsiders by bookmakers at the start of the 2015/16 season, the soccer world is still flabbergasted by Leicester’s City Premier League title. Could statistical analysis have predicted this rare event? Betting analyst, Joseph Buchdahl, takes a look…

Applying Elo ratings to soccer betting

[tip] You might have heard of Elo ratings but what is it exactly and how can they be applied to betting to increase your winnings? A must read for anybody planning to bet on the second leg matches of the…

Past performance is not an indicator of future results

[tip] From betting tipsters to financial advisors, past data is widely used to predict future events. In this article, Dominic Cortis discusses the pitfalls and advantages of this method and explains why prediction models failed to predict Leicester’s chances of…

Randomness in sports betting

[tip] Betting on sport is, by nature, a very uncertain business, but can bettors keep a tight grip on the randomness of it all? Joseph Buchdahl looks at the best way to tackle the inevitable randomness in sports betting. In…

The pitfalls of Martingale money management strategy

[tip] Some bettors are big believers in money management strategies but are they really as reliable as people make out? Joseph Buchdahl investigated the Martingale betting system to see whether the returns are really worth the risks. There are some…

What is the Labouchere betting system

[tip] To be profitable in sports betting, staking strategy is as important as finding value odds. With many progressive betting systems, such as the Labouchere betting system, promising almost infinite wealth, are they a good idea to follow? Here’s the…

Using Pythagorean expectation for soccer betting

[tip] Predominantly used for betting on US sports such as baseball and basketball, can Pythagorean expectation be used for betting on soccer? Analytics expert, Mark Taylor explains why this could be a potentially profitable strategy when betting on long-term markets.…

Using ‘R’ for betting analysis

[tip] Gaining an edge in betting often boils down to intelligent data analysis, but faced with daunting amounts of data it can be hard to know where to start. If this sounds familiar, R – an increasingly popular statistical programming…

What do betting odds represent

[tip] Odds are only a representation of something more important – probability. Getting a handle on how to calculate probability and covert it into decimal odds is the first step in developing your own assessments of betting value. There is…

Using Chi-Square to make more informed betting decisions

[tip] In order to have a successful betting model, all bettors should collect as much data as possible. But just how well does data fit into certain expected scenarios? Dominic Cortis explains how important ‘the goodness of fit’ is in…

How to spot errors and inaccuracies in prediction models

[tip] Previous articles have introduced different types of prediction models as well as methods to measure dispersion. Whatever the model, the prediction is not prophecy, it assigns a likelihood to an event, which can be influenced by error, something bettors…

How do I calculate betting margins

[tip] If you’re new to betting, you should learn how to calculate betting margins. This article explains what betting margins are, highlights why Pinnacle Sports offer the best value and teaches you how to calculate betting margins. In simple terms,…

How does luck influence short term betting

[tip] As a bettor do you understand how luck influences your short-term betting? Is a run of five winning bets skill or luck? This article explains how assigning probabilities to your bets is a good habit to develop, as a…

How to build a betting model

[tip] How do you build a sports betting model? What steps are involved? What do you need to consider? Follow these steps to build your own quantitative model, and take your betting to the next level. What is a betting…

Using Standard Deviation to compare scoring patterns

[tip] This article explains to soccer bettors how to use standard deviation for handicap betting. By understanding this, you can gauge the probability of a team covering the spread more accurately, which can translate to more profit. These previous articles explained…

An example of how to build a betting model

[tip] Following our popular article on how to build a betting model, here is a practical example of creating, applying and testing a betting model that predicts wins, losses and draws in the Premier League. Read on to find out.…

Sports betting profitability and the affect of margins

[tip] Do you know what a ‘margin’ is and how crucial it is to your sports betting profitability? The bigger the bookmaker’s margin, the more accurate you have to be with your bets to make a long-term profit. Find out…

Mean, mode and median crucial concepts for betting

[tip] The most popular way to assess data for betting purposes is to use an average, but is it the most useful? The mode and median often provide a more suitable alternative, so understanding them is crucial for successful betting.…

A powerful tool to beat the betting market

[tip] Recently, the official Pinnacle Sports Twitter account has been sharing data on the percentage of bets made on either side of selected major markets. Understand the benefits to our Twitter followers and how to use the information. Our Educational…

Using a Monte Carlo model to predict sports

[tip] What models do you use to guide your bets? If you haven’t heard of Monte Carlo simulation you could be missing out. There are various ways to solve a real-life conundrum numerically; however we are usually accustomed to a…

How to calculate Draw No Bet from 1X2 odds

[tip] If you ever feel constrained by traditional 1X2 options then a Draw No Bet (DNB) option could be what you are looking for. Find out how to calculate this. What is a Draw No Bet? When betting on regular…

What home set-up is best for in-play betting

[tip] In-play betting requires a detailed setup to achieve maximum success. This article examines a typical trader set-up, and what can be done to avoid disasters in the markets. The basic home bettor set-up First and foremost, a laptop or…

Why use 1X2 market to place bets as Double Chance

[tip] Bettors should be able to calculate Double Chance stakes and odds on the 1X2 market to understand the true value of their bets. This article explains how Pinnacle Sports bettors can use the 1X2 market to place bets as…

Bayesian analysis and sports betting

[tip] Bettors often seek out new tools to help refine the process of assigning accurate probabilities to the chances of uncertain events happening. This article discusses how Bayesian Analysis – the theory of an 18th Century English Presbyterian Minister named…

Alternative to laying on Exchanges

[tip] Think that you have to use an Exchange to lay a bet? Pinnacle can provide an alternative. Find out why we offer more value than an exchange and then decide for yourself what the most profitable choice is. Value…

How to calculate commission-free odds

[tip] Don’t think Pinnacle Sports offer more value than an Exchange? Learn how to calculate commission-free odds, and you may change your mind. Calculating an exchanges hidden commission Unlike regular bookmakers, exchanges charge commission on your winnings, i.e. net profit…

Measuring Expected Value

[tip] Expected Value is a great way to measure whether a bet is potentially profitable. In fact, one mathematician even used EV to guarantee multiple lottery jackpot wins. Despite its usefulness, however, many bettors are unfamiliar with the technique. Learn…

The Pareto Principle of Prediction

[tip] It’s common knowledge that to acquire a skill, you have to climb a learning curve. “Curve” is a good description of the process, as the acquisition of skill – like in making accurate betting predictions – isn’t linear. Read…

Is the Fibonacci betting system profitable

[tip] Progressive betting systems aren’t the most glamorous form of soccer betting, but some people claim they can make big profits. We investigated the Fibonacci betting system to see whether the returns were worth the risks. The essence of the…

Advanced betting types explained

[tip] Bookmakers like Pinnacle Sports offer numerous bet types to cater for the variety of interests of its players. These range from the simple “bet to win” single bet, all the way to live betting and “buying and selling points”.…

How to get an edge in betting

[tip] The fundamental challenge for serious bettors is to gain an advantage over whoever is laying their bet, whether that is a bookmaker, exchange or casino. In betting parlance this is called ‘getting an edge’ and if you want to…

How weather influences betting

[tip] When placing a bet, you may check variables such as a team’s form and their record against the opposition – but do you check the weather? This often-overlooked aspect of sports betting can influence the outcome of any sporting…

How do free bets work

[tip] When choosing a bookmaker, incentives are especially appealing – but how do free bets work? Unfortunately, a read through these bookmakers’ terms and conditions show that it’s not just free money. Read this article to learn how free bets…

How to select a betting tipster using survivorship bias

[tip] Some bettors defer the betting selection process and use tipsters. Unfortunately, it’€™s easy to confuse whether a tipster’€™s track-record shows a statistically significant predictive ability, or just a good run of luck. This article explains how to judge a…

Calculating Expected Value for sports betting

[tip] The Expected Value of a bet shows us how much we can expect to win (on average) per bet, and as such is the most valuable calculation a bettor can make when, comparing bookmakers odds. This article shows you…

Basic bet types explained

[tip] Understanding basic bet types is vital for any punter to maximise their opportunity of making a profit. This article explains three basic bet types offered by Pinnacle Sports; 1X—2€™s, Handicaps and Totals. Basic Bet Types: 1X2€™s 1X2 markets are…

Explaining how bookmakers work with a coin

[tip] There are two groups of gamblers, those who hope to win and those who plan to win. By understanding how bookmakers work, you can calculate how to become more profitable with your betting and transform your losses into wins.…

1X2 to Handicap odds conversion

[tip] A good way to discover where the value of a bet lies is by calculating a 1×2 to handicap conversion. Most bookmakers use a ’1×2 to handicap’ conversion chart, which will give you a better insight into the particular…