Confidence can come and go for some bettors and it will often have an impact on how they bet. Some may view confidence as an integral part of maintaining success, while others believe it might hinder the decision-making process. This article analyses whether confidence is a good or a bad…
Asymmetric outcomes occur when the potential upside is much larger than the downside. So how do they work and why are they important in betting? Read on to find out. What are asymmetric outcomes? When the outcome of an event has two possibilities, an asymmetric outcome occurs when the potential…
The goal for bettors is to win. To win a bet, to win money, to essentially get more out of the betting market than what you put in. It may seem counterintuitive to then say that being wrong is a good thing, but it can certainly help you in the…
The way bettors process information is important to their success. What is binary bias? What can YouTube and the Baltimore Ravens tell us about betting psychology? What is a good bet? Read on to find out. What is binary thinking? Binary thinking involves sorting information into mutually exclusive options, not…
The law of large Numbers was established in the 17th century by Jacob Bernoulli showing that the larger the sample of an event – like a coin toss – the more likely it is to represent its true probability. Bettors still struggle with this idea 400 years on which is…
Do you know why betting on your favourite team is a bad idea? It’s for the same reason lotteries are so popular and people find judging the likelihood of rare events, like a hole-in-one, so difficult. It comes down to skewed perception resulting from what are known as the possibility…
People are prone to misinterpreting a sense of control in situations that are inherently random, uncontrollable or unpredictable. This illusion of control is especially pertinent to betting, and should therefore be something that all bettors understand and try to guard against. Read on to find out how. The need for…
There’s no doubt the best sports stars are defined by their ability to consistently avoid defeat: Roger Federer at Wimbledon, Jurgen Klopp at home and Floyd Mayweather in the ring. But are these winning streaks caused by great skill – or just good luck? Read on to find out. The…
Many people bet intuitively. They rely on what they know or feel about a particular team or player to make an on-the-spot assessment of their chances of success. While intuition is reliable at instantly working out if someone is angry with you, it isn’t great with probability judgements and the…
A lot of gamblers trust their gut instinct to bet without realising that relying on ready made rules of thumb – known in psychology as heuristics – can lead to poor decision making. Read on to find what the most common heuristics are and how to avoid them. There is…
The Monty Hall problem is a prime example of how, when presented with the simple challenge of selecting one favourable outcome against two unfavourable outcomes, we display a basic inability to correctly weigh up the chances of success. This is crucial for bettors because in simple terms, if a bettor…
If you are looking to establish a predicted outcome for a difficult conundrum, it is reasonable to assume that surveying a large number of people for their prediction will generate a relatively accurate collective guess. This theory is known as Wisdom of the Crowd and can be an effective way…
When was the last time you decided to bet on a team, but found new information and decided to back their opponent? If you don’t do this very often, it could be because you’ve become a victim of “confirmation bias”, a phenomenon that can harm your betting. The theory behind…
The term “hot hand” originates from basketball, where a player’s probability of hitting a free throw is believed to be higher after a hit than a miss on the previous shot. In sports betting scenarios, the term is used to describe a bettor with a persistent winning record. But is…
What is the somatic marker hypothesis? Do emotions impact decisions? Does hunger help you deal with uncertainty? Jonathan Brycki explores the intersection of human psychology and physiology on decision-making. In essence, gambling is a task of making value-based decisions involving situations with uncertain outcomes. Understanding and calculating risk is key to determining…
Some people might think that being a successful bettor is all about analysing the markets and spending the bulk of your days solely focused on sport and numbers. However, sometimes thinking about betting in a different context can be beneficial. Read on to find out more about walking back betting…
Research in neuro-economics, the science that seeks to explain human decision-making, has shown that money-making experiences are processed by the brain in the same way as chemically-induced highs, while financial losses are handled as if mortal dangers. So what can bettors do to increase their chance of profitable survival while…
Betting for a living is often romanticised as being about big-decision moments and the highs of pulling off life-changing wins. The reality couldn’t be more different. Bettors need to work hard, learn quickly and be disciplined in order to succeed. Patience is also an essential trait for any serious bettor,…
If you are trying to learn how to make money in sports betting, you will sooner or later come across the term betting psychology. Can your mindset directly affect your profits? What are the most common mistakes and how can you avoid them? Are you in control of your actions or…
For disciples of rational choice theory the business of gambling presents a headache. Supposedly individuals always make rational decisions by trying to maximise their advantage whilst minimising their losses. You wouldn’t pay €1,000 for a holiday if you thought it was worth only €500. If a bet has an expected…
Do odds represent true probabilities of an event? A leisurely stroll in the library and the discovery of a highly cited academic book is what put Dominic Cortis on the quest to discover why odds deviate from actual results. Read on to find out what bettors can learn from behavioural…
The Law of Large Numbers was established in the 17th century by Jacob Bernoulli showing that the larger the sample of an event – like a coin toss – the more likely it is to represent its true probability. Bettors still struggle with this idea 400 years on which is…
We have all dreamt of being rich and this is one reason why people buy lottery tickets, even if the odds of scooping the jackpot are depressingly low. But how low are the odds exactly and what can you do instead to make money? The human brain can be brilliantly…
The term “hot hand” originates from basketball, where a player’s probability of hitting a free throw is believed to be higher after a hit than a miss on the previous shot. In sports betting scenarios, the term is used to describe a bettor with a persistent winning record. But is…
It’s unlikely that you have ever wondered whether you are more like Fox or a Hedgehog. Important scholars stretching back to the Grecians have, however, used this animal analogy to characterise important traits that illustrate the way we think and impact our ability to successfully predict. One man’s crusade to…
If you have a difficult conundrum, it’s reasonable to assume that the more people you survey, the better your solution will be. This theory is known as the ‘wisdom of the crowds’, and is an effective way of making decisions under uncertainty, like estimating the probability or outcome of a…
One of the most common betting mistakes is to confuse specialist knowledge in sports with a specialty in sports betting. This error is illustrated by the proliferation of ex-professional sports stars that become betting tipsters or self-proclaimed experts, and is neatly described by the “Green Lumber Fallacy”. One of the…
When was the last time you decided to bet on a team, but found new information and decided to back their opponent? If you don’t do this very often, it could be because you’ve become a victim of “confirmation bias”, a phenomenon that can harm your betting. The theory behind…
Whether a golfer, soccer player or tennis star, professional sportsmen hate to lose. That’s obvious. But did you know that athletes actually perform better in situations where they are striving to avoid defeat, rather than if they were just aiming to win? The psychology behind this “loss aversion” is simple:…
There’s no doubt the best sports stars are defined by their ability to consistently avoid defeat: Roger Federer at Wimbledon, Jose Mourinho at home and Floyd Mayweather in the ring. But are these sprees caused by great skill – or just good luck? The characters listed above are all at…
Many people bet intuitively. They rely on what they know or feel about a particular team or player to make an on-the-spot assessment of their chances of success. While intuition is reliable at instantly working out if someone is angry with you, it isn’t great with probability judgements and the…
Do you know why betting on your favourite team is a bad idea? It’s for the same reason lotteries are so popular and people find judging the likelihood of rare events, like a hole-in-one, so difficult. It comes down to skewed perception resulting from what are known as the Possibility…
People are prone to misinterpreting a sense of control in situations that are inherently random, uncontrollable or unpredictable. This illusion of control is especially pertinent to gambling, and should therefore be something that all bettors understand and try to guard against. Find out how. The Need for Control – Skinner…
The Monty Hall problem is a prime example of how, when presented with the simple challenge of selecting one favourable outcome against two unfavourable outcomes, we display a basic inability to correctly weigh up the chances of success. This is crucial for bettors because in simple terms, if a bettor…
A lot of gamblers trust gut instinct to bet without realising that relying on ready made rules of thumb – known in psychology as heuristics – can lead to poor decision making. Find out what the most common heuristics are and how to avoid them? There is a very good…
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