The 2020 US election was the biggest betting market in history. While this is interesting for a number of reasons, it’s not necessarily surprising. The US election is arguably the one human centric event that has an impact on the greatest number of people on Earth. And this year’s incumbent…
Betting is defined as the action of risking something (usually money) for a potential reward by trying to predict the outcome of an event. While it is a game of risk and reward, betting provides a lot more than the potential for financial gain. What do the betting markets tell…
Bettors often spend a lot of time trying to find edge over the market. Some manage to do it, while plenty more will struggle achieve such a feat. In addition to finding an edge, staking is also an incredibly important part of betting. How much should you stake if you…
Money Line betting is the most common type of sports bet. The simple format ensures it’s a popular choice for beginner bettors. However, more advanced bettors will still turn to this market to find value. What is a Money Line bet? How does Money Line betting work? Read on to…
Being restricted or banned isn’t something Pinnacle customers have to deal with, yet it’s one of the worst kept secrets in the betting industry. Why do bookmakers restrict winning bettors? Should they be allowed to? What’s the reason Pinnacle can afford to no restrict customers? Read on to find out….
It is widely accepted that beating a bookmaker, especially one like Pinnacle, is a very challenging task. But what is it that makes It so difficult? Can looking at things from a bookmaker’s perspective help us understand how good you have to be to win at sports betting? Read on…
Profitable bettors come from all walks of life. Yet, if you are in the actuarial profession, you are well ahead of the curve. Here’s what Dominic Cortis, an associate actuary and current researcher in the betting markets, has to say about how actuaries can make a profit as a bettor….
Joseph Buchdahl has published numerous educational materials on measuring randomness in soccer betting, as well as how efficient odds are and why they are so difficult to beat. In his latest article, he delves into that subject once again to take another look at randomness and efficiency in soccer betting….
Sports betting is not a simple as following a set of guidelines or rules in order to guarantee success. What works for one person may not work for another. That said, there are some core principles that all bettors will benefit from following. Read on to find out the five…
A common misconception is that a bookmaker’s job is simply to “balance the book” to guarantee profit. While a bookmaker will often manage their risk across all the available options in a market, this might not always be the case. Read on to find out how often a bookmaker balances…
Everyone wants to be a winner, but the sports betting industry wouldn’t exist if that was possible. Bettors are competing against each other in a relative-skills competition in a winner takes all environment. What are the consequences of competition in betting? Read on to find out. Last month Pinnacle published…
Having delved into one of the classic betting questions in part one of his article, Joseph Buchdahl now takes his analysis of the price discovery model a step further. How many bettors are sharp? Read on to find out. Part one: How many bettors are sharp? It’s commonly believed that…
Bettors often strive to be labelled as “sharp”. This is normally another way to suggest someone is skilled enough to win in the long term, but only very few bettors will actually fall into this category. How many bettors are sharp? Read on to find out. Revisiting a classic question…
Just like there are many different sports and markets to bet on, and many different types of bookmakers to bet with, there are also many different types of bettor. People bet in different ways and for different reasons. No matter what you bet on or why you bet, it’s still…
In part one of this article, Joseph Buchdahl introduced the idea of using the Bayes Factor to test betting skill. Now, he uses real betting histories to show how we can test whether results are down to luck or skill. Read on to find out more. Part one: Using Bayes…
How do we know when betting results are down to luck and when they are down to skill? There are various suggestions to try and answer this question, but they still often lead to debate. In his latest article, Joseph Buchdahl explains how the Bayes Factor can be used to…
All bettors have to deal with losses, no matter how skilled they are. Some bettors may experience losing runs that are longer than others, but how long can we expect a losing run to last in betting? Read on to find out. Winning a bet is a nice feeling. Losing,…
There are numerous different bet types that bettors can choose from across various sports. These bets can be placed as a Single bet, but also combined with other selections into a Multiple bet. What is a Multiple bet? How does Multiples betting work? Read on to find out. Multiples betting,…
The internet is filled with tipsters and touts selling tips and picks across all manner of sports. Some of the records on display are often appealing to bettors who may not want to work for their win. However, there is often more to these records (or lack of them) than…
The Kelly Criterion is a well-known concept amongst serious bettors. Regarded by many as the optimal way to manage your bankroll, it does also have its criticisms. What do bettors need to know about the Kelly Criterion? Read on to find out. This article attempts to answer some additional questions…
The format for betting odds can vary depending on which part of the world you live in. The two most common options used are Decimal and American odds. But what is the difference, how do you calculate returns for each format and convert from one to the other? Read on…
In part one of this article, @PlusEVAnalytics begun his attempt to combine questions about sample size, regression to the market, market efficiency and the Kelly Criterion into a betting version of the theory of everything. In part two, he develops this theory and tries to answer those questions. Read on…
Uncertainty, market efficiency and the Kelly Criterion are three of the most common discussion points amongst bettors. In his latest guest contribution for Pinnacle, @PlusEVAnalytics tries to answer the questions that often arise out of these discussions. Read on to find out more. Part two: Toward a theory of everything…
Part one of this article introduced the idea that bookmaker’s take positions on point spread markets due to the betting market’s overconfidence on favourites. Part two uses recent NBA betting data to try and answers that question. Read on to find out more. Part one: Do bookmakers take positions on…
The point spread is one of the most popular betting markets for bettors. While this market is meant to “levelling the playing field” for the teams taking part, the bookmaker could potentially be making it less level than what we are led to believe. Do bookmakers take positions on point…
People will bet on particular sports for many reasons. You might enjoy playing the sport, or you might spend your time watching it. For those more serious about betting, it might be that in that specific sport that you are to able identify inefficiencies in the market. Not everyone should…
Outright betting, also known as futures betting, consists of a variety of markets available to bettors. What is outright betting? When does long-term betting offer value? How can you make outright betting predictions? Read on to find out. What is an outright bet? An outright bet is a bet placed…
Pinnacle are well known in the betting industry for being uniquely tolerant of arbitrage bettors, offering them the same limits as any other better and not restricting or closing accounts like other bookmakers. Why is Pinnacle arbitrage friendly? Read on to find out. Pinnacle argue that they are able accept…
There are millions of people around the world that bet on a regular basis. A lot of these people bet for fun, while others who take betting seriously use it as a means to make a living. There are also those that fall somewhere in between who may think they…
Betting consensus numbers, or bet splits, are some of the most popular and highly-circulated pieces of betting content on the internet. However, there are limited benefits in using this kind of information when deciding which outcome to bet on for an event. Read on to find out why the kind…
People often say that nothing in life is free. However, plenty of bookmakers will offer customers a “free” bet. Whether these free bets are actually free is up for debate, but bettors will still want to know how to get the best value out of these offers. Read on to…
There have been numerous studies into the favourite-longshot bias and the irrational behaviour of bettors when it comes to analysing odds. This bias is often viewed through the lens of the psychology of a bettor, but what role does the bookmaker play? Read on to find out. What is the…
Millions of people around the world earn their living with real estate. If you are not one of them, odds are you have watched a television show about professionals that do. The concept of earning money “flipping” a house is widely understood by many, but can the mindset apply to…
What is sports betting? How are odds and payouts calculated? How do bookmakers work? Read on to discover everything a beginner needs to know about betting on sports. What is sports betting? Sports betting involves staking on the outcome of sporting events. Bettors attempt to predict the result of an event in order to…
Bettors are often consumed by what they are betting on how much they are betting and how much they might win (sometimes prioritised in a different order). How much you might win from one bet is important, but bettors need to think about returns in relation to a larger sample of bets….
Sports bettors who fail to recognise randomness in betting are fighting a losing battle. How can we spot randomness in betting and how can you test how much of your success or failure is down to randomness? Read on to find out. One of my earliest articles published by Pinnacle…
The option to Cash Out a bet has become an increasingly popular offering from online bookmakers. What is Cash Out? Is the Cash Out option ever profitable? How is Cash Out calculated? Read on to find out? What is Cash Out? Cash Out is a facility provided by some bookmakers…
While betting can be a fun and enjoyable experience, if your aim is to make money from it, it can be very difficult. A lot of people want sports betting to be their job but don’t understand how much hard work is required. Do you know how difficult betting is?…
Part one of this article reviewed a study into the efficiency of Pinnacle’s odds and explained how to model market efficiency. Now, Joseph Buchdahl has looked into how odds movement and analysing bettors’ anchoring bias can provide more insight into just how efficient Pinnacle’s odds are. Read on to find…
Anyone who is interested in assessing whether their predictions are accurate enough to consistently beat the betting market will have likely heard of using the Pinnacle closing line. How efficient are Pinnacle’s odds and how can you model market efficiency? Read this article to find out. Pinnacle’s Head of Trading…
The focus of many bettors is often on how much they could win when betting, but it’s just as important to think about how much you could lose. Drawdowns are a well-known concept within the finance industry, but how can it be applied to betting? Read on to find out….
The first ever bet or instance of gambling in some form can be traced back over thousands and thousands of years. While a lot has changed in that time, there is still plenty of room for development and even more change. Why is it important to think about the future…
People often think that betting is all about winning, but your losses are just as important as the wins. Even the best bettors will lose and it’s how you react to those losses that matter. Why do bettors need to learn to lose? Read on to find out. A lesson…
Betting is often influenced by luck. Sometimes we can benefit from good luck, and other times we can be the victims of bad luck. It’s important to understand the part luck can play in betting, but just how fine is the line between good and bad luck? Read on to…
There are three main odds formats available to bettors; Fractional odds, Decimal odds and American odds. Fractional odds have historically been used in the UK but Decimal odds are arguably the most popular format. How do you convert Fractional odds into Decimal or American? Read on to find out. It might…
In addition to offering the best odds, highest limits and educating bettors, one thing that makes Pinnacle different to other bookmakers is the fact that winners are welcome. So why do other bookmakers close and restrict accounts? We asked real-life bettors to find out. Read on to learn more. Regardless…
Betting exchanges are becoming increasingly popular for bettors looking to bet with better odds than the ones on offer at traditional bookmakers. Many believe that betting with an exchange will always provide better value than a bookmaker. The question is; is this actually the case? Read on to find out….
For many bettors, choosing a bookmaker is no longer a decision based on the best value on offer but who is offering the most eye-catching promotion. While “free bets” and bonus incentives might be appealing at first glance, a closer look at the terms and conditions show what these offers…
Value betting is an essential skill for bettors. What is a value bet? How can a bettor find value? Read on to find out. One of the most interesting things about betting is that nobody knows the true probability of the outcome of an event (other than a coin toss). Bookmakers set odds based…
Serious bettors will often claim that multiples are a waste of time. In essence, these types of bet reduce the probability of winning while increasing the potential profit. Can multiples actually offer betting value? Read on to find out. “I placed a €1 bet and I won €500,000” It’s a…
