Dutching is one of the less commonly known betting strategies out there. That is because it contradicts the usual approach of choosing which option offers the most value and instead, spreading your risk across several outcomes. What is dutching and how does dutching work? Read on to find out. Typically,…
The Martingale strategy is one of the most well-known methods in sports betting. While the pitfalls are clear for all to see, there could be some potential uses thanks to the math involved. Read on to find out what bettors can learn from the Martingale strategy. First things first, this…
Teasers betting is something not all bettors are aware of, yet it is an option that allows you to boost your chances of winning a bet featuring multiple selections (albeit at reduced odds). How do Teaser bets work, what are their payouts and what Teasers betting does Pinnacle offer? Read…
To win in sports betting you need a betting strategy with a positive expected value, i.e. an estimation of your average winnings per bet. But how much capital should you risk per bet to achieve maximum profits? For this, you need to understand the concept of utility. Read on to…
As a bettor do you understand how luck influences your short-term betting? Is a run of five winning bets skill or luck? This article explains how assigning probabilities to your bets is a good habit to develop, as a run of winning bets isn’t always a sign of good betting….
By its very nature, betting on sport is an uncertain business, so how can bettors keep a tight grip on the randomness of it all? Joseph Buchdahl looks at the best way to tackle the inevitable randomness that occurs in sports betting. Why is sports betting random? In the article The…
Knowing about something before everyone else is a key component of successful betting. Instead of relying upon soccer betting tips, smart bettors will collate as much relevant data as possible, analyse the impact it could have on the market and utilise this to bet accordingly. The emergence of new or…
Betting markets are highly efficient which can make it difficult to uncover value. This article discusses whether the timing and structure of an event can create unconventional opportunities for bettors. Finding value The efficiency of betting markets makes value very difficult to find through conventional means. However, as I have discussed previously,…
One way to distinguish winning from losing players is to look at the odds a player received when they made their bet and compare it with the closing line. Consistently beating the closing odds at Pinnacle can be a strong indicator of long-term betting profits. When a bookmaker opens a…
At any stage during a match, either one side is ahead or we have equality with a variable number of changes in the lead. Ever wondered how often the lead changes? Don’t put your money on what your intuition is telling you. Read on to find out why. Understanding probabilities…
Is finding value in overlooked outliers a feasible betting strategy? How could such an outlier be found? This article discusses the opportunities and difficulties presented by searching for overlooked teams in the betting market. Outliers in theory A topic I’ve written about before is the importance of information in betting. Prices…
Soccer bettors are increasingly looking for more profitable markets than 1X2, for which a lack of goals or a late equaliser can deny even the best judgments a winning bet. A straightforward way to try and beat the bookies on the soccer front is with the Over/Under goals markets. This…
In this article Joseph Buchdahl attempts to quantify the range of possible returns a bettor can expect if they use percentage staking as their money management plan. How does percentage staking work? Read on to find out. Around an expected performance there is a distribution of possible outcomes influenced by…
Bettors will often focus on the idea of success in betting. People want to fail as little as possible and win as much as they can. Andrew Mack, author of Statistical Sports Models in Excel, believes that failure could be the secret to success in betting. In his debut article…
Many people start their betting journey with the same question. How do odds work? The answer to this question is incredibly important if you want to become a successful bettor, but it’s also only the start of a long journey. Read on to find out why all bettors need to…
Every bettor should use a live odds screen. Unfortunately, a lack of available information results in many never realising the merits of live odds software. With multiple free options now available, this article will serve as an introduction to using a live odds screen to help you better understand betting…
Many people who want to become full-time bettors will calculate how much money they need to win per month in order to live comfortably. In his latest article, Adam Chernoff explains why picking and sticking to this ‘magic number’ isn’t always the best strategy. “Ok, I take home $5,000 per…
Leaving his native Canada at the age of 18, with a one-way ticket to the Dominican Republic, and $2,000 in his pocket, Adam Chernoff dreamed of a career betting on sports. Over a decade later, he looks back and reflects on what he’s learned since – and ponders what exactly…
There are countless betting strategies that seem to provide a legitimate means of beating the market and turning a consistent profit. Middling is one such strategy, but does it actually work? Read on to find out. Middling is a betting strategy that aims to exploit differential pricing between bookmakers or…
The only party with access to the full range of information within a betting market is the bookmaker. Why can bookmakers see the full picture? Why should bettors consider adverse selection before placing a bet? Read on to find out. What is adverse selection? Adverse selection occurs in markets where…
People often question how much success in betting is down to luck and how much is skill. Want to find out if you’re a skilled bettor? Read on to find out how the closing line can be used to test betting skill. I’ve previously published an article on Pinnacle’s Betting…
The subprime mortgage bubble is just one example of irrationality within a market leaving opportunities for a small group of investors. Have we ever seen a similar bubble in a betting context? Why can preventing information signalling cause market Inefficiency? Read on to find out. What is a bubble? A…
Push and pull spots are magnified buy low, sell high spots. This is a common theory is used in any field of investing, but how can this situation be applied to sports betting? Read on to find out how bettors can find push and pull spots when handicapping. What is…
Bankroll management is preached by bettors across the world, but are they focusing on the wrong aspects? What is the right way to manage a betting bankroll? How should bettors start, and what is the right way to do it? Read on to find out. The basic principle Bankroll management…
In this article level and percentage staking strategies are compared. Which staking method produces the superior expected yield? How do the yield distributions contrast between the two? Read on to find out. Pinnacle’s Betting Resources has previously compared and contrasted a number of different staking strategies. I’ve looked at the expected profitability and risks…
There are various different strategies and approaches people take to try an achieve success in betting. While some of these can be complex and difficult to implement, there are many simple concepts that anyone can apply. Read on to find out the power of using “if-then” when placing a bet….
Becoming a profitable bettor is a very difficult task. The market is efficient and information advantages erode rapidly, not unlike the stock market. Is it possible to become a profitable bettor? What should bettors learn from underperforming hedge fund managers? Read on to find out. What is the efficient market…
Odds are only a representation of something more important – probability. Getting a handle on how to calculate probability and convert it into decimal odds is the first step in developing your own assessments of betting value. There is a conversation that all seasoned bettors will have had numerous times…
Have you considered handicap betting into buckets? Not familiar with this concept? Adam Chernoff breaks down this unquie betting strategy to offer bettors a more methodical approach when it comes to betting on the Handicap. Read on to inform your handicap betting knowledge. How handicapping into buckets can help with…
There is a common belief in momentum, or hot handedness, in sport despite studies claiming to disprove the concept. Should bettors discard the concept of form? This article argues that it may be an error to do so. In 1985, the same year that Michael Jordan won the NBA’s rookie…
It’s common knowledge that to acquire a skill, you have to climb a learning curve. “Curve” is a good description of the process, as the acquisition of skill – like in making accurate betting predictions – isn’t linear. Read on to find out how the Pareto Principle applies to betting…
Progressive betting systems aren’t the most glamorous form of soccer betting, but some people claim they can make big profits. We investigated the Fibonacci betting system to see whether the returns were worth the risks. The essence of the Fibonacci Strategy for soccer betting – published in 2007 by Fragiskos Archontakis…
Following the discussion of Randomness in sporting outcomes, Joseph Buchdahl is taking the analysis of the factor of luck to the next level. Find out how randomness can influence your betting performance and how you can measure it by using Excel. The Monte Carlo method relies on repeated random sampling…
The risk of ruin concept is well-known in finance and investing but how can it be applied to sports betting? Why should even profitable bettors be aware of the concept? Read on to find out. In his book Skin in the Game, Nassim Nicholas Taleb presents the following thought experiment, which I have…
Margins drive the betting world. They are the reason bookmakers exist, and why bettors pursue value in the markets. Yet, despite the undeniable importance, very few bettors know how to calculate margins and use them to evaluate market moves. The importance of understanding margins The Chicago Bears are playing the…
Betting bankroll management and awareness of variance are essential skills for bettors. What is the relationship between odds, edge and variance? What are the bankroll implications of varying odds? Read on to find out. By understanding what to expect over a series of bets, sound bankroll management will assist a…
Taking into consideration home field advantage is an essential part of betting. What factors influence home advantage? Which soccer league has the biggest home advantage? What do Pinnacle’s closing odds suggest about home field advantage? Read on to find out. Factors behind home field advantage There are a number of…
Calculating how much you can expect to win (on average) for each bet you place is a crucial part of betting. Although you only know the closing odds of an event after it starts, they can still be used to measure profit expectation of a bet. Want to know how?…
Many “casual” bettors choose their bets through “gut feeling” about what they think will happen during an event, an approach which does not lend itself to profitable betting. Does this mean more skilled bettors can rule out utilising their intuition entirely? How can intuition help with decision making? In his…
The Kelly Criterion is often a hot topic of debate amongst bettors. Pinnacle has published numerous articles on the subject, from simple explanations to complex analyses. How does a fractional approach to the Kelly Criterion work and is it the best option for serious bettors? Read on to find out….
Using a staking method (or money management strategy) is a crucial component of making a consistent profit from betting. The Kelly Criterion is often cited as the best option to use for various reasons, but how does it work in practice? How risky is the Kelly Criterion? Read on to…
Commonly known for its application to basketball free-throws, the hot hand fallacy is by no means a modern concept in sports. However, it can be applied to multiple sports and be used as part of a betting strategy. How does the hot hand fallacy work in soccer betting? Read on…
Opportunity cost is a useful concept for deciding the best way to maximize return on investment from funds. Even profitable bettors should be aware of the potential costs of misallocating resources. Read on to find out more about applying opportunity cost to sports betting. What is opportunity cost? Imagine a…
Earning a living from betting can be rewarding. However, as profitable as becoming a winning bettor can be, earning a regular salary from sports betting can be challenging. How often can winning bettors expect to get paid? Read on to find out. In 2017, Pinnacle ran a Twitter Discussion Day where…
David Sumpter, a professor of Applied Mathematics, explained the process of building a betting model based on under-priced draws in part one of this article. Now, he analyses whether expected goals can be used to beat the bookmaker’s odds. Can it be done? Read on and find out. Part one:…
The Expected Value of a bet shows us how much we can expect to win (on average) per bet, and as such is the most valuable calculation a bettor can make when comparing bookmakers odds. How can you calculate Expected Value in sports betting in order to predict your winnings?…
While Betting Resources aims to educate bettors about everything from the basics of betting to predictive models, some bettors still fall into the common traps that inhibit success. This article provides a basic explanation of the common mistakes bettors make and how to avoid them. Read on to learn more….
David Sumpter, a professor of Applied Mathematics, has shown how soccer can be dissected and broken down into numbers, patterns and shapes in his book Soccermatics. Having already developed a betting model, he has now written a two-part article for Pinnacle, exploring the notion of a magical betting formula and…
To be profitable in the betting markets, a bettor needs two things: an edge over the bookmaker and a well-disciplined staking method. In this article, Joseph Buchdahl calculates the profitability and chances of bankruptcy for five different staking methods. Read on to find out which staking method is best for you based…
It might be obvious to say that soccer teams struggle with the jump in quality after winning promotion. However, being able to quantify those struggles could be beneficial to bettors. Analysing newly promoted teams’ results against “better quality” teams in a higher division could highlight odds discrepancies and provide a…
