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Betting Strategies
- What is dutching? The “bet on everything else” strategy explained
- What can the Martingale strategy teach us about betting?
- What is Teasers betting?
- How much should you risk per bet?
- How does luck influence short term betting
- The element of randomness in sports betting
- The value of information in soccer betting
- Timing a bet: Attempting to create value
- What distinguishes winning from losing bettors?
- How often does the lead change in a match?
- The problem with outliers
- How to beat the bookies in the Over/Under market
- Quantifying possible returns from percentage staking
- Failure: The secret to success?
- Betting odds explained: How do odds work?
- How to use a live odds screen
- Betting for a career: Never have a number
- What if I started over?
- Middling: What’s the point worth?
- Adverse selection: What to consider before placing a bet
- Using the closing line to test your skill in betting
- What can sports bettors learn from economic bubbles?
- Using push and pull spots in betting
- Should you stop thinking about bankroll management?
- A comparison of level and percentage staking
- The power of “if-then” in betting
- Beating the market: Is it possible to be a profitable bettor?
- Betting odds explained: How to calculate odds
- How handicapping into buckets can help with betting
- The hot hand just got hotter
- The Pareto Principle applied to betting
- What is the Fibonacci betting system?
- Using the Monte Carlo method to analyse your betting history
- Understanding and managing your risks of ruin
- Using bookmaker margins to spot influential line moves
- Bankroll management: Odds, edge and variance
- Home field advantage analysed
- What can closing odds tell us about profit expectation?
- Does intuition have a place in sports betting?
- Revisiting the Kelly Criterion Part 2: Fractional Kelly
- Revisiting the Kelly Criterion Part 1: A risk assessment
- Exploiting the hot hand fallacy in a soccer betting market
- Applying opportunity cost to sports betting
- How often do professional bettors get paid?
- Part two: Is there a magical betting formula?
- How to calculate Expected Value
- What are the most common mistakes sports bettors make?
- Part one: Is there a magical betting formula?
- How to choose a staking method based on your betting profile
- How to bet on newly promoted teams
- All you need to know to beat the bookies
- How to test the credibility of a tipster’s record
- Why information is more valuable than soccer betting tips
- What is survivorship bias?
- The search for truth: Signal vs. noise
- The law of small numbers in sports betting
- The ultimate guide to evaluating betting tipsters
- Arbitrage betting explained
- Staking: One method to improve your betting
- How Pinnacle’s API can improve your betting
- Betting exchanges explained
- The role of utility in profitable betting
- How to beat the bookies in the Over/Under market
- Why do bookmakers close or limit betting accounts
- A guide to hedging outright markets in sports betting
- How to calculate margins on soccer betting odds
- Understanding the significance of market movement
- The need for a Bayesian approach in betting
- How to use Kelly Criterion for betting
- Soccer handicap betting explained
- Why free bets are not free
- Why are betting tipsters underperforming
- The ultimate guide on backing outsiders
- How bookmakers make money: an inside look in the trading room
- The importance of evaluating your performance against the closing line
- Understanding bet types in tennis
- Leicester’s success story: Skill or luck?
- Applying Elo ratings to soccer betting
- Past performance is not an indicator of future results
- Randomness in sports betting
- The most jaw-dropping statistic every bettor should know
- The pitfalls of Martingale money management strategy
- What is the Labouchere betting system
- Using quantitative methods to examine effects of small sample
- Using Pythagorean expectation for soccer betting
- Using ‘R’ for betting analysis
- What do betting odds represent
- Using Chi-Square to make more informed betting decisions
- How to spot errors and inaccuracies in prediction models
- How do I calculate betting margins
- How does luck influence short term betting
- How to build a betting model
- Using Standard Deviation to compare scoring patterns
- Using standard deviation to measure betting probabilities
- An example of how to build a betting model
- Sports betting profitability and the affect of margins
- Mean, mode and median crucial concepts for betting
- A powerful tool to beat the betting market
- Using a Monte Carlo model to predict sports
- How to calculate Draw No Bet from 1X2 odds
- What home set-up is best for in-play betting
- Why use 1X2 market to place bets as Double Chance
- Bayesian analysis and sports betting
- Alternative to laying on Exchanges
- How to calculate commission-free odds
- Measuring Expected Value
- The Pareto Principle of Prediction
- Is the Fibonacci betting system profitable
- Advanced betting types explained
- How to get an edge in betting
- How weather influences betting
- How do free bets work
- How to select a betting tipster using survivorship bias
- Calculating Expected Value for sports betting
- Basic bet types explained
- Explaining how bookmakers work with a coin
- 1X2 to Handicap odds conversion
Betting Psychology
- Is confidence a good or a bad thing in betting?
- Asymmetry in outcomes: Success vs. failure in betting
- Why it pays to be wrong in betting
- Binary thinking and betting: What is a “good bet”?
- What is the Gambler’s Fallacy?
- The dangers of weighting probability from intuition
- The illusion of control
- Betting on winning streaks
- Understanding the Halo Effect
- Heuristics & betting
- The Monty Hall problem
- Applying Wisdom of the Crowd to sports betting
- How confirmation bias affects your betting
- The hot hand phenomenon
- Hungry for a bet: Does hunger help you deal with uncertainty?
- Walking back betting markets
- The hindsight bias effect in sports betting
- Why patience is an essential trait for any serious bettor
- Betting psychology: A crash course for aspiring professional bettors
- Why do we gamble? Irrationality and overconfidence
- Applying behavioural economics in sports betting
- The Gambler’s Fallacy & law of large numbers
- Optimism bias in betting
- Are winning streaks in sports betting real?
- Predictive skills – Are you a Fox or Hedgehog?
- Wisdom of the Crowds applied to betting: can it effect a sports betting prediction?
- The difference between sports and sports betting
- How confirmation bias affects your betting
- Why players perform better when they’re losing
- Are winning streaks caused by great skill or good luck?
- Understanding the Halo Effect
- The dangers of weighting probability from intuition
- Guarding against the dangers of superstition
- The Monty Hall Problem: knowing when the odds are against you
- Why bettors should understand heuristics
Educational Articles
- Prediction markets vs. polls – what to watch next election
- It’s not all about the money: What do betting markets tell us?
- When you don’t know your edge, how much should you stake?
- Money Line betting explained: What is a Money Line bet?
- To restrict or not to restrict? That is the question
- The asymmetry of bookmaking
- From actuary to sports betting
- Another look at randomness and efficiency in soccer betting
- Five key betting principles you need to remember
- How often does a bookmaker balance their book?
- Winner takes all: The consequences of competition in betting
- Part two: How many bettors are sharp?
- Part one: How many bettors are sharp?
- What type of bettor are you?
- Part two: Using Bayes Factor to assess betting skill
- Part one: Using Bayes Factor to assess betting skill
- How long will a losing run last in betting?
- What is Multiples betting?
- The tipster marketplace and the impact of survivorship bias
- The Kelly Criterion: What bettors need to know
- American odds vs. Decimal odds
- Part two: Toward a theory of everything
- Part one: Toward a theory of everything
- Part two: Do bookmakers take positions on point spreads?
- Part one: Do bookmakers take positions on point spreads?
- Why all bettors should care about baseball
- Outright betting: Long-term betting strategy explained
- Why is Pinnacle arbitrage friendly?
- Are you serious about betting?
- Why you need to look at betting market data in more detail
- The maths and psychology of free bets
- Who is responsible for the favourite-longshot bias?
- Flip a house, make a bet: Real estate vs. betting
- Sports betting explained: How to bet on sports
- How to model your range of possible betting returns
- Revisiting randomness in betting
- Cash Out betting: What should bettors know about Cash Out?
- Do you know how difficult betting is?
- How to solve a problem like efficiency: Part two
- How to solve a problem like efficiency: Part one
- What are drawdowns and how do you manage them?
- Why it’s important to think about the future of betting
- Why bettors need to learn how to lose
- Good and back luck: The thin line of expectation
- Fractional odds vs. Decimal odds
- A case study: Why aren’t bettors allowed to win?
- Who offers better value: A bookmaker or betting exchange?
- How much is a free bet really worth?
- What is a value bet?
- The art of multiple betting
- The value of asymmetric information in sports betting
- The basics of reverse line movement
- How quickly can you learn a skill?
- The problem with data mining in sports betting
- The nature of uncertainty in betting
- What can you learn about betting in the classroom?
- How often do you need to beat the closing line?
- The difference in handicap betting in different sports
- Assessing betting skill: Bayesian vs. Frequentist methods
- Visualising a bet: What does a betting edge look like?
- The pitfalls of sports betting systems: Correlation vs. Causation
- Becoming a profitable bettor: A question of luck or skill
- How to make predictions with no data
- Is R the betting analysis tool of the future?
- Soccermatics: Mathematical modelling applied to soccer
- Arbitrage vs. Value Betting – Exposing misconceptions
- 4 betting lessons from Sir Alex Ferguson
- Surviving in the shark tank
- Inside a sports hedge fund
- The history of lotteries
- The effect of the tournament format on the odds
- How to calculate profits with different odds formats
- An inside look into where the majority of bets are placed
- How do betting odds work
- Profitable betting: From chance to choice
- How to convert between Decimal & American odds
- Three careers ideally suited for betting