Educational Articles

Revisiting randomness in betting

[tip] Sports bettors who fail to recognise randomness in betting are fighting a losing battle. How can we spot randomness in betting and how can you test how much of your success or failure is down to randomness? Read on…

Do you know how difficult betting is?

[tip] While betting can be a fun and enjoyable experience, if your aim is to make money from it, it can be very difficult. A lot of people want sports betting to be their job but don’t understand how much…

How to solve a problem like efficiency: Part two

[tip] Part one of this article reviewed a study into the efficiency of Pinnacle’s odds and explained how to model market efficiency. Now, Joseph Buchdahl has looked into how odds movement and analysing bettors’ anchoring bias can provide more insight…

How to solve a problem like efficiency: Part one

[tip] Anyone who is interested in assessing whether their predictions are accurate enough to consistently beat the betting market will have likely heard of using the Pinnacle closing line. How efficient are Pinnacle’s odds and how can you model market…

What are drawdowns and how do you manage them?

[tip] The focus of many bettors is often on how much they could win when betting, but it’s just as important to think about how much you could lose. Drawdowns are a well-known concept within the finance industry, but how…

Why bettors need to learn how to lose

[tip] People often think that betting is all about winning, but your losses are just as important as the wins. Even the best bettors will lose and it’s how you react to those losses that matter. Why do bettors need…

Good and back luck: The thin line of expectation

[tip] Betting is often influenced by luck. Sometimes we can benefit from good luck, and other times we can be the victims of bad luck. It’s important to understand the part luck can play in betting, but just how fine…

Fractional odds vs. Decimal odds

[tip] There are three main odds formats available to bettors; Fractional odds, Decimal odds and American odds. Fractional odds have historically been used in the UK but Decimal odds are arguably the most popular format. How do you convert Fractional odds…

A case study: Why aren’t bettors allowed to win?

[tip] In addition to offering the best odds, highest limits and educating bettors, one thing that makes Pinnacle different to other bookmakers is the fact that winners are welcome. So why do other bookmakers close and restrict accounts? We asked…

Who offers better value: A bookmaker or betting exchange?

[tip] Betting exchanges are becoming increasingly popular for bettors looking to bet with better odds than the ones on offer at traditional bookmakers. Many believe that betting with an exchange will always provide better value than a bookmaker. The question…

How much is a free bet really worth?

[tip] For many bettors, choosing a bookmaker is no longer a decision based on the best value on offer but who is offering the most eye-catching promotion. While “free bets” and bonus incentives might be appealing at first glance, a…

What is a value bet?

[tip] Value betting is an essential skill for bettors. What is a value bet? How can a bettor find value? Read on to find out. One of the most interesting things about betting is that nobody knows the true probability of…

The art of multiple betting

[tip] Serious bettors will often claim that multiples are a waste of time. In essence, these types of bet reduce the probability of winning while increasing the potential profit. Can multiples actually offer betting value? Read on to find out.…

The value of asymmetric information in sports betting

[tip] Information is of great value to bookmakers and bettors alike. Occasionally, markets with limited data or low liquidity offer little information to bookmakers. This provides an opportunity for bettors in possession of superior information. Read on to find out…

The basics of reverse line movement

[tip] Monitoring line movement can provide a snapshot evaluation of the market and understanding why bookmakers make these adjustments can be beneficial to bettors. However, a common mistake is to base betting decisions on line movement alone. Read on to…

How quickly can you learn a skill?

[tip] Randomness and luck play a crucial part in betting, but there is still an element of skill involved. It might be possible to win in the short-term thanks to luck, but you won’t win in the long-term without skill.…

The problem with data mining in sports betting

[tip] Using data as part of a betting strategy is common practice. However, as impressive as some results may appear, the process of producing such results is the important part. What are the problems with data mining in sports betting?…

The nature of uncertainty in betting

[tip] Betting dates back thousands of years and while how we bet and what we bet on has changed dramatically, the nature of uncertainty remains. Bettors obviously need to be aware of what uncertainty and probability mean, but can the…

What can you learn about betting in the classroom?

[tip] Some bettors have spent years honing their skills with the end goal of beating the bookmaker. Others have worked towards a different career and then transferred their skills to betting. People might take different paths when it comes to…

How often do you need to beat the closing line?

[tip] It is a common misconception that betting is all about results. The key to successful betting lies in finding value in the market and consistently beating the closing line. But just how often do you need to beat the…

The difference in handicap betting in different sports

[tip] Handicap betting is often seen as an advanced form of 1X2 or Money Line betting. Some bettors are put off because it seems complex but handicap betting offers a unique challenge by balancing the chances of either side winning…

Assessing betting skill: Bayesian vs. Frequentist methods

[tip] At the most basic level, making money from betting requires two things. Skill and luck. Whilst many bettors fail to acknowledge the influence of the latter, measuring the former is also often overlooked. This article shows why it is…

Visualising a bet: What does a betting edge look like?

[tip] All bettors want to make bets that give them a positive edge, but what does an edge look like? In his Betting Resources’ debut our Head of Analytics answers this enduring question with a unique approach: visualisation of value.…

Becoming a profitable bettor: A question of luck or skill

[tip] Betting is about securing positive expected value to make a consistent profit. As part of that process, bettors must consider the influence randomness and luck have on the outcome of any given event. This article looks at whether becoming…

How to make predictions with no data

[tip] The Mayweather vs. McGregor UFC-Boxing crossover has sports fans and bettors gripped for the simple reason that it has no precedent. This provides fertile grounds for debate and speculation but is a huge headache for anyone trying to predict…

Is R the betting analysis tool of the future?

[tip] You might have heard of R, the increasingly popular statistical programming language widely used for data analysis, but how can it help you improve your betting? For that purpose, we interviewed our Sports Manager, Jonathan Belke. Read on to…

Soccermatics: Mathematical modelling applied to soccer

[tip] Sports and maths are often labelled as separate entities, even though they complement each other in many different ways. This Soccermatics book review explains how David Sumpter uses mathematical modelling to bring the numbers and patterns buried within the…

4 betting lessons from Sir Alex Ferguson

[tip] With the release of his latest book, Leading, Sir Alex Ferguson took a step back from soccer memoirs to reveal the secrets of his winning ways in the 38 years he spent managing Manchester United and Aberdeen. What are his…

Surviving in the shark tank

[tip] Pinnacle has been successfully operating a unique high volume, low margin, winners welcome model since 1998. We are often asked why this approach hasn’t been successfully copied. The fascinating answer I got back from our Trading Director is both…

Inside a sports hedge fund

[tip] The Holy Grail for bettors is generating a regular income from their activities. Professional bettors are a small and exclusive group, understandably reluctant to share their insight. Despite this, we managed to speak to an insider in the niche business of…

The history of lotteries

[tip] The dream of winning the lottery has been an integral part of human history throughout the ages. Politicians, philosophers, emperors and – last but not least – lottery winners, have all profited in different ways. But who invented the…

The effect of the tournament format on the odds

[tip] Whether it is the tennis Australian Open or the baseball World Series, the outright odds are the market that number one bettors look at the outset of a competition to assess the strength of the contenders. With the tournament…

How to calculate profits with different odds formats

[tip] The format for betting odds can vary depending on which part of the world you live in. The two most common options used are Decimal and American odds. But what is the difference, how do you calculate returns for…

How do betting odds work

[tip] With a large number of bookmakers claiming to offer the best odds and an equally large number of websites comparing betting odds, are you really getting the best deal? In this simple guide we explain how odds work to…

Profitable betting: From chance to choice

[tip] Gambling is one of the world’s oldest pastimes. Having started as entertainment back in the ancient times, betting outcomes were perceived as no more than a whim of the gods. Gambling has now transformed to the most extraordinary way…

How to convert between Decimal & American odds

[tip] Depending on which part of the world you are from, you are likely to be comfortable seeing odds in a certain format. With an abundance of online convertors available, have you ever wondered how you can easily convert decimal…

Three careers ideally suited for betting

[tip] There are three established professions which share the attributes required for successful betting. If one of this trio is your current day job, you have a head-start in turning a profit as a part-time punter. Equally, aspiring bettors looking…