A good way to discover where the value of a bet lies is by calculating a 1×2 to handicap conversion. Most bookmakers use a ’1×2 to handicap’ conversion chart, which will give you a better insight into the particular market, this article shows you how to calculate 1X2 odds to Handicap odds.
A simple equation to calculate a 1×2 to handicap conversion for decimal odds is:
2.000 x (Wins ÷ Losses)
Use this formula to create a database of 1×2 to handicap conversions for a range of decimal odds. Below is a basic 1×2 to handicap conversion chart for ease of reference:
The chart above can be used as a general guideline, but to gain more of an advantage conversion charts for home/away and high/low totals should be created.
Home Teams and Handicaps
Generally, home teams do slightly better on most handicaps (See our article on How to calculate Home Field Advantage). You’ll also find that as the totals decrease, the 1×2 for a handicap increases. So in NFL for example a 7-point favorite in a game with a total of 30 might be 1.303 (instead of 1.357 for a typical game with a 42.5 total).
Sometimes your calculations will show that a handicap and 1×2 don’t match. An example of this can be seen in the 2005 Super Bowl game between New England and Philadelphia, for which the Patriots were 7-point favourites and 1.434 favorites on the 1×2.
The no-margin for this match would normally be around 1.344. However in this case, the influence of public betting caused an inaccurate conversion. In general, the public tends to bet on the underdog in 1×2 and the favourite on the handicap.
These two tendencies combine to force the spread and moneyline out of alignment. This could be a result of public betting patterns, or an oddsmaker not being aware of the changes, either way, alert players can profit from these situations.
If you are adamant that one of the odds is off, but unaware of which one, many professionals play “the middle” by betting on both the 1×2 favourite and the underdog on the handicap.
Sharp bettors often profit by betting against the public. For example, in our Super Bowl example shrewd bettors “middled” the game by making the following bets:
- £739 to win £642 on Philadelphia Eagles at +7 on the Handicap
- £962 to win £417.5 on New England on the 1×2.
In this example betting the “middle” was profitable as New England won by 3 points, paying sharp bettors on both the 1×2 and handicap.
If the Patriots had won by more than 7 (or if the Eagles had won), the bets would have resulted in a combined net loss of £321.50.
The two bets combined effectively gave the bettor odds of 3.3 on the bet “will the Patriots win by 1-7 points?” while fairer odds would be closer to 2.6. The gap between these odds is the overlay caused by public bettors.
There is no guarantee there will be a public-forced conversion opportunity by calculating 1×2 to Handicap within NFL, or any other popular league every weekend, but the huge array of markets available at Pinnacle Sports presents lots of other opportunities to profit from this betting tactic.